Classroom tool

Fourth Down Simulator

Compare the win probabilities of going for it, punting, or attempting a field goal using the current fourth-down model.

Validation note: against the current cfb4th benchmark grid, the simulator matches the benchmark recommendation in 636 of 640 tested scenarios (99.4%). Probability differences are generally small, with mean absolute error of about 0.03 percentage points for go decisions and 0.07 percentage points for field goals. The advanced inputs are visible for future expansion, but the current live recommendation is driven by the core game-state inputs shown by default.

Scenario input

Set the situation

Opponent 42
4
Down 3
Advanced inputs are visible for future extension, but the current classroom model still evaluates only the core game-state variables for its live recommendation.